name: product-market-fit version: 1.0.0 category: Product & Strategy domain: product-market-fit author: Matt Warren license: MIT status: production updated: 2026-02-07 activation_triggers:

• "product market fit"
• "PMF"
• "Sean Ellis"
• "do people want this"
• "validate my idea"
• "customer validation"
• "retention analysis"
• "pivot" tools: []

Product-Market Fit

PMF surveys, Sean Ellis test, retention analysis, and pivot frameworks.

Purpose

Determine whether you've found product-market fit and, if not, what to change. PMF is the single most important milestone for any startup.

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Context

• Product/service description
• Current customer count and engagement
• How customers find you today
• Retention/repeat usage data (if available)
• What customers say they love (and hate)

Step 2: Sean Ellis Test Design

Survey question: "How would you feel if you could no longer use [product]?"

• Very disappointed
• Somewhat disappointed
• Not disappointed
• N/A — I no longer use it

Benchmark: 40%+ "Very disappointed" = PMF signal

Design the full survey (5-8 questions) to understand:

• Who are the most passionate users?
• What's the primary benefit they get?
• What would they use as an alternative?
• How did they discover you?

Step 3: PMF Assessment

Based on data provided:

• Strong PMF signals: High retention, word-of-mouth growth, pull from customers
• Weak PMF signals: High churn, feature requests that change the core, price sensitivity
• No PMF signals: Growth only from paid acquisition, low engagement, high support volume

Step 4: Pivot Framework (if needed)

If PMF isn't there, evaluate:

• Zoom in: Double down on the feature users love most
• Zoom out: Your feature should be a platform
• Customer pivot: Same product, different audience
• Need pivot: Same audience, different problem
• Channel pivot: Same product, different distribution

Step 5: Action Plan

Concrete next steps based on assessment.

Output Format

## PMF Assessment: [Product]

### Current Signals
| Signal | Status | Evidence |
|--------|--------|----------|
| Retention | [Strong/Weak] | [Data] |
| Word of mouth | [Strong/Weak] | [Data] |

### Sean Ellis Survey
[Survey questions]

### Assessment
[PMF status and reasoning]

### Recommended Actions
1. [Action]
2. [Action]

Constraints

• PMF is not binary — present it as a spectrum
• Don't declare PMF based on vanity metrics (signups, downloads)
• Be honest if the data suggests a pivot is needed
• Note that PMF can be lost — it's not permanent